“I made Uncaptured the favorite because I was really impressed by what I’ve seen,” said Avello of the Mark Casse trainee with three stakes wins at Woodbine. “We didn’t take any big bets on him, so many other bettors aren’t as sure he’ll transfer his form to the dirt, or maybe I set the odds too low. If no one bets him at 30-1, I’ll raise him.”
In case anyone was wondering about how betting odds work with a casino ...
What does it take for Avello to move a number? He said he’s letting customers bet “to win $20,000.” So, if you want to bet a horse at 100-1, you can bet up to $200 before he’ll move the line (and let you bet again if you accept the adjusted price). Avello said he’ll take $100 no matter the price, so a horse at 300-1 could put his exposure at $30,000.
Avello said he’s already on the hook for $80,000 on yet another Pletcher trainee, Archwarrior, who opened at 150-1 and was bet all the way down to 50-1 on the first day.
Just because a lot of fillies have not won others did run.. Lets be hypothetical... Since Rachel Alexandra only ran against fillies should she have not been allowed to try the derby? I know she did not but this is hypothetical. Honestly, if Jesse Jackson had bought hre before the Oaks who knows what he would have done. Her entire campaign up until then was all against her own sex...
[WARNING: Pedantic Nonsense Follows]
Just as well; 10f wasn't her distance.
Starts with an 'S,' ends with a 'T.' You figure it out.
"Houston, Tranquility Base here, picking up where we left off ..."
Carey said the Chicago track offered [to Churchill Downs] to move the Illinois Derby into March, where it might be grouped with 50-point races like the Tampa Bay Derby, Risen Star, Spiral and Sunland Park Derby.
“We were even willing to change the date into the March time frame, which doesn’t make any financial sense for us to do,” said Carey, who said Churchill suggested the move. “…. They said, ‘If you guys come back with some ideas, we would take a look at it for 2013.’ We provided those to them, and they just came back and said, ‘Nope. Good luck in ’13 and maybe we’ll see you in ’14.’”
Carey said the Illinois Derby now will try to entice horses who might already have qualified on points and whose connections are looking for a softer final prep than the Grade I races, as well as those targeting the Preakness or Belmont.
The favorite is now a tie @ 30-1 ... Canadian-bred and based runner Uncaptured with a record of 4 4-0-0. Although he may be a polytrack specialist.
And moving alongside is Archwarrior (as cited in the Saratoga thread 'the second coming of Seattle Slew' which was rather overhyped thus far) is also 30-1 and will be seen next most likely up against the 2nd wagering favorite ....
Shanghai Bobby is at 35-1 and he'll run next October 6th in the Grade 1, $400,000 Champagne Stakes at Belmont against Archwarrior
Next up at 40-1 is Goldencents. Who? The Cali based runner is 1-0 with a 7-length win at DelMar in a maiden on Sep 2nd. Looks like Jimmy "The Hat" (or some playa out there) put a lot of action on him to drop from 125-1 to the 40-1
Oddly Kauai Katie (f) is listed at 200-1!! Dreaming of Julia (f) at 55-1. I suppose the future book folks are looking at the new Derby entry rules and suspecting its even less likely a filly will gain eligibility into the Kentucky Derby.
I know each year we all see fillies who are wowing folks because they mature earlier but Kauai Katie has sizzled. For those who haven't followed her:
Don't expect Euro-based Steeler (IRE) to be in Louisville in May:
By finishing [Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket at one mile] in 1:35.67, Steeler set a new course record for a juvenile. Sportinglife.com reports that he bettered the old mark for his age group of 1:35.70 set by Forward Move in 2004.
"[Steeler] will come into his own next year and could be a Derby horse," Fallon concluded, but meaning the Group 1 Derby at Epsom, not Churchill Downs.
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile this year, as noted before, will not allow for runners to be administered lasix. One of the noted races this weekend which will most certainly confirm a few runners for going on to the BC JV and garner points towards the Kentucky Derby (which has no lasix ban) is the: G1 Foxwoods Champagne Stakes.
The $400,000 purses race has a field of seven. Only two of which will be running without lasix: Chief Havoc and Fortify.
“If we had a problematic bleeder, it might mean that you wouldn’t go,” Pletcher said. “Right now, the 2-year-olds that we’re dealing with, none of them I would classify as problematic bleeders. I think we will continue to manage them the way that we normally do and then on race day we hope they run well without Lasix.”
“Personally, it doesn’t bother me, I can’t speak for all my owners,” said Pletcher, who won the Juvenile in 2010 with Uncle Mo. “What are your choices? If you have Shanghai Bobby or Archwarrior or somebody that wins the Champagne, by deciding not to go to California you’re giving up the opportunity to run in a $2 million race, you’re giving up the opportunity to be champion 2-year-old to run in the Remsen for $200,000? It’s the way it’s set up, it’s not great, but it is what it is. Play or don’t play.”
In terms of points for the Derby eligibility:
Champagne: 10-points W || 4-points P || 2-points S || 1-point for 4th
With a field of just 7 runners almost everyone gets something
From the Grade 1, $400,000 Champagne Stakes at Belmont there wasn't much of a race ... the initial overblown hype of Archwarrior being 'the next Seattle Slew' isn't there to date. It was Shanghai Bobby dispatching the field without being asked for anything.
(Rosie, with props to her, won two Grade 1 races yesterday!)
Derby points added the following: Shanghai Bobby, 10; Goldencents, 4; Fortify, 2; and Archwarrior, 1.
As suggested before Pletcher would ship 'Bobby' to Santa Anita for the BC JV but that actually is a bit less likely now. Bobby's owner remarked that: I was a believer then, and I probably am still, that the horses that run in the 2-year-old Breeders’ Cup race don’t come back,” Wolf said.
Also Shanghai Bobby’s victory pushed Pletcher past Bobby Frankel for second on the all-time [trainer's] earnings list. At day’s end, Pletcher had $228,168,465 in purse earnings, surpassing Frankel’s second-place mark of $227,912,022. D. Wayne Lukas, Pletcher’s former boss, is the all-time leader with $260 million.
On the "girls" side the Frizette Stakes was decimated with a horse cast in the stall -Roveing Patrol - resulting in her being scratched along with another. The field already was very small. So just four horses broke from the gate but damn it was a great match race between the two heavyweights - Dreaming of Julia and My Happy Face.
My Happy Face won her maiden at the Spa by 21 1/4-lengths, where as Dreaming of Julia won her two prior by a combined 26+ lengths. It couldn't have been a better two dueling at the stretch.
Avare, who broke his maiden at a mile on turf Saturday at Santa Anita, debuts in Johnny Avello’s Kentucky Derby 139 odds at 250-1. Trained by 2012 Kentucky Derby winner Doug O’Neill, he’s owned by a partnership that includes University of Louisville basketball coach Rick Pitino. And he’s named for Rick Pitino’s long-time financial advisor Rick Avare.
* Uncaptured went from 30-1 to 60-1 after losing Woodbine’s Grey Stakes.
* Archwarrior is now at 40-1 after finishing fourth in the Champagne.
* Shanghai Bobby, Champagne winner, is the lowest at 20-1
* Carving, the Bode Miller/Jill Baffert owned horse, went up from 150-1 to now 175-1
An interesting low odd horse that had a decent (but nothing "wow" about) maiden win on Oct 20th: Z Big Apple now at 20-1
Right now with the Derby Points it's Shanghai Bobby with of them 20 and the other 19-point holders at 10-or-less. BC JV runner up, in a good fight, He's Had Enough sits with in a multi-tied position with just 4-points along with the 3rd place BC JV finisher, Capo Bastone, also with 4-points.
The Real Quiet is a prep for the Grade 1, $750,000 CashCall Futurity on Dec. 15. Baffert said Carving likely would be one of several runners he has in the race. “I’m going to run as many as I can,” he said. “I’ll try to load the gate up.”
The Louisville track is introducing a new seating and Section 110 hospitality venue for the 2013 Derby and the Oaks that offers the historic track's first stadium-type seating, hospitality highlighted by limitless food and drink, and a first-turn clubhouse location that provides the track's most breathtaking view of its iconic Twin Spires.
Kentucky Derby and Oaks fans who have registered online at CD/tickets for the opportunity to purchase tickets to the 2013 renewals of those events at Churchill Downs will be contacted via e-mail the morning of Nov. 14 with details of the online offering of more than 3,000 first-turn trackside seats.
Pricing for the two-day ticket package for Kentucky Derby and Oaks will range from $698 for uncovered seats to $799 for seats located under cover.